Ouch

Another not-so-good night for my guy. I have to admit that I’m flummoxed by the way this race is unfolding. I knew that McCain would take a commanding lead after Super Tuesday, but I had expected at least a winnowing out of Spoiler Huck. Unfortunately, because of a little back-alley gerrymandering and some southern sweet talk, it looks like Huckabee is going to stick around long enough to ensure a McCain victory for the nomination.

He came out last night quoting scripture (he wonders why he keeps getting questions about religion) and telling his supporters that it truly is a two man race between he and McCain. I look for his campaign to formally ask Mitt to concede in the next few days. I agree with Huckabee on one count. It is a two man race. McHuckabee and Romney.

Should Romney bow out now? I don’t know. There’s a part of me that says he should bow out gracefully and begin making an “I told you so” case for 2012 in opposition to the Democrat President. I say this because there is no way McCain closes the deal in November. There is also a more visceral part of me that wants to see Mitt plow on through the convention. At this point, I think it is a matter of curbing the political damage that may occur if he keeps going. I think that he will employ a “wait and see” approach through the Potomac Primary coming up to see if there is enough momentum to warrant a run through Texas and Ohio.

Regardless of my humble opinion, look for a major media backlash against Romney. They’ll start the clock ticking on his campaign while Huckabee will continue to spout more of his populist “I’m a Wal-Mart Republican” garbage.

Huckabee has proven that he can win the south. It will most likely continue his defense campaign for McCain and earn him a VP slot. Lindsey Graham will not be pleased. Just to show what the “Huckabee Effect” is doing to the race, I’ve taken a little liberty with the numbers last night to show mathematically how things would have been different without the Gov. of Arkansas. I took Huckabee’s winning vote percentages and re-distributed them among McCain and Romney. Since the prevailing evidence shows that Huck and Mitt are splitting the conservative vote, I weighted the percentages 40% to McCain and 60% to Romney. I tried to balance the anti-Mormon sentiment of the South along with the anti-McCain sentiment of Southern conservatives. This is especially generous to McCain, as you’ll see in WVa. In the calculations below, “Hv” stands for Huckabee votes that would be re-distributed. Again, this is in no way scientific, just thoughts from my noggin.

Tennessee:
Romney: 24 + 20 Hv = 44%
McCain: 32 + 14 Hv = 46% McCain wins

Georgia:
Romney: 30 +20 Hv = 50% Romney wins
McCain: 32 + 14 Hv = 46%

Alabama:
Romney: 18 + 25 Hv = 43%
McCain: 37 + 16 Hv = 53% McCain wins

Arkansas:
Romney: 14 + 36 Hv = 50% Romney wins
McCain: 20 + 24 Hv = 44%

West Virginia:
Romney: 47 + 31 Hv = 77% Romney wins
McCain: 1 + 21 Hv = 23%

I only considered the states that Huckabee won, although you could track similar trends in states that McCain won closely over Huckabee, or in previous states where the "Huckabee Effect" has already taken place. I don’t have the time to do all the math, but it is obvious that if Mike was not running defense for McCain, we’d have a whole different ballgame. McCain owes Huck bigtime.